SCW 2020 Day 1 - Flipbook - Page 12
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Semiconductor Fabs to Log Record
Spending of Nearly $68 Billion in 2021
2021 is poised to mark a banner
year for global fab equipment
spending with 24 percent growth to
a record US$67.7 billion, 10 percent
higher than the previously forecast
US$65.7 billion, and all product segments promising solid growth rates,
according to the second-quarter
2020 update of the SEMI World
Fab Forecast report. Memory fabs
will lead worldwide semiconductor
segments with US$30 billion in
equipment spending, while leading-edge logic and foundry is expected to rank second with US$29
billion in investments.
The 3D NAND memory subsegment will help power the
spending spree with a 30 percent
jump in investments this year before
tacking on 17 percent growth in
2021. DRAM fab investments will
surge 50 percent next year after
declining 11 percent in 2020, and
fab spending on logic and foundry,
mainly leading edge, will trace a
similar but more muted trajectory,
rising 16 percent 2021 after an 11
percent drop this year.
Some segments will see lower fab
equipment spending but impressive
change rates nonetheless. Image
sensors will notch an impressive 60
percent increase in 2020 and add a
36 percent surge in 2021. Analog
and mixed signal will grow by 40
percent in 2020 and 13 percent in
2021. And power-related devices
are forecast to register 16 percent
growth in 2020 with a healthy jump
of 67 percent in 2021.
The SEMI World Fab Forecast
report also shows the worldwide fab
Fab equipment spending from 2019 by 2021 by quarter
equipment spending trough in 2020
shifting from the first to the second
quarter (see figure).
A review of quarter-over-quarter
(QoQ) spending trends reveals the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
over the course of 2020. Global fab
equipment spending QoQ declined
15 percent in the first quarter
of 2020 – performance that was
stronger than the 26 percent decline
forecast in February. In March,
some companies appeared to build
up safety stock as a countermeasure
to the spreading virus as shelterin-place orders emptied offices,
malls and schools worldwide. As
the contagion grew, demand for
IT and electronic products such
as notebooks, game consoles and
healthcare applications surged.
Some stockpiling is expected to
stretch into the second quarter,
fueled by fear of restrictions –
scheduled to take effect in late June
– on semiconductor equipment sold
to China.
While the World Fab Forecast
report predicts rising investments
in the second half of 2020, the
year will mark the second consecutive yearly drop in fab equipment
spending – 4 percent this year after
an 8 percent dip in 2019.
And despite the bullish projections, threats from the pandemic
still lurk. Pandemic-related layoffs,
with more than 40 million workers
idled in the United States alone
(as of May), and company closures
will trigger ripple effects in consumer markets and discretionary
spending. For instance, rising
unemployment will lead to falling
smartphone and new car sales.
Despite those downdrafts, digital
transformation and the need to
communicate will still drive industry growth as cloud services,
server storage, gaming and health
applications spur demand for
memory and IT-related devices.
12 | Monday, July 20www.semiconductordigest.com
